Trump’s use of the pardon reveals a predilection to exonerating his own associates and political friends; the number of links to himself among the pardoned is unusual for a president. We know Trump rather well by this time, and the expectation is that any pardons he issues, at least for a while, will be out of immediate self-interest. They will be, firstly, to protect himself, his family, his moneyed felon friends who might now assist him, and the executives of his business who have information on him.
Possible people Trump might pardon, in these final days of his presidency:
1. Donald Trump: Self-pardon — Likelihood extremely strong. He declared in a tweet on June 4, 2018 that he had the “absolute right” to pardon himself. He’s talked about doing it. He very well might do it. And a self-pardon seems a better bet for Trump than resigning and trusting Mike Pence to pardon him. It would have to be a very general, blanket pardon for “any and all crimes” over a (long) period of time — similar to the one Ford gave Nixon. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/04/trump-lays-out-two-rationales-for-pardoning-himself-in-mueller-probe.html
2. Michael Flynn — likelihood rather strong. **Update: DONE! Flynn seems to have inside knowledge of wrongdoing in the administration concerning Russia.
3. Martha Stewart — Trump said he was considering this, in 2018, but didn’t get around to it. He probably won’t waste the time.
4. Rudy Giuliani, if he is indicted. He is currently under investigation by the Southern District of NY prosecutors. Trump might well issue him a cover-your-ass pardon if he feels the need for this loyal supporter, also if he fears Giuliani’s knowledge of Russia involvement.
5. Paul Manafort — likelihood rather strong. He definitely has inside knowledge of the administration’s dealings with Russia. And all the people who lied about it.
6. Roger Stone. — So far, his sentence has been commuted. Trump might erase the conviction. This would be easy for him.
7. Steve Bannon — This might be a spite pardon. It would definitely offend many people Trump would like to offend.
8. Julian Assange — likelihood could be strong, especially if Assange could implicate friends of Trump’s that Trump still needs.
9. Elliott Broidy — There could be a connection here that Trump considers valuable, and possible insider knowledge on Broidy’s part. He is a Republican money guy, after all, so could be important to keep close.
10. The Trump Organization, and/or members of his family; executives of the Trump Org. such as Allen Weisselberg. Ivanka, Donald Jr., Eric. — Likelihood extremely strong. Trump’s loyalty to his children could easily lead him to protect them universally with a pardon. As far as members of the Trump Organization are concerned, Trump can easily see the peril of their inside knowledge. These people know a great deal that could damage Trump. Any non-relatives would need to be shielded to keep them loyal.
11. Jared Kushner — Likelihood strong. Besides the fact that he is aware of a great deal of Trump’s actions, he’s definitely implicated in certain Russia events, such as establishing a backchannel to the Russian embassy, and worse. (What he did was like Draco Malfoy and the vanishing cabinet at Hogwarts. Utterly illegal and treasonous.) Plus, he’s married to Trump’s favorite child.
12. Edward Snowden. Back in August Trump said he was “considering” a pardon for him, but we don’t think this has much momentum or takes up much space in Trump’s mind. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-30/trump-seen-flexing-his-clemency-power-after-nov-3-win-or-lose
